A post orthogonal to a book review of *How to Expect the Unexpected: The Science of Making Predictions and the Art of Knowing When Not To*, by Kit Yates
Example 2 should have also referenced Greenland's "There’s Not Much Science in Science" (p. 47-60) on vaccine/booster bias, mandates, and children/young people. Key points: "The causal comparator is all unvaccinated or unboosted, not just their covid cases. The unvaccinated or unboosted study cases are further selected by getting Covid severe enough to be recorded."
Example 2 should have also referenced Greenland's "There’s Not Much Science in Science" (p. 47-60) on vaccine/booster bias, mandates, and children/young people. Key points: "The causal comparator is all unvaccinated or unboosted, not just their covid cases. The unvaccinated or unboosted study cases are further selected by getting Covid severe enough to be recorded."